<\/p>\n
\n\tPrivate equity\u2019s involvement in the active market for music catalogs continues to be a sore subject at one of America\u2019s finest literary outlets.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n\t\u201cThere are vested interests now that don\u2019t want new music to flourish,\u201d music historian Ted Gioia<\/strong> told The Atlantic<\/em><\/a>. \u201cThe private-equity funds just want you to listen to the same songs over and over again, because they own them.\u201d A similar argument \u2014 or warning \u2014 came last year from The New York Times<\/em>, which bemoaned<\/a> that \u201cprivate equity is destroying our music ecosystem\u201d and \u201cgobbling up the rights for old hits and pumping them back into the present.\u201d Gioia made the same argument in 2022 at his Substack publication, The Honest Broker<\/em>, which The Atlantic<\/em> later republished.\u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tNot only are these big investors contributing to old music\u2019s dominance, the arguments go, but record companies\u2019 dedication to the past is hurting the music of the present \u2014 both in terms of quality and its share of listening on streaming platforms. Record labels \u201cdon\u2019t spend any <\/em>money on research and development to revitalize their business, although every other industry looks to innovation for growth and consumer excitement,\u201d Gioia dubiously wrote in 2022.<\/p>\n \n\tOkay, so private equity has a bad reputation \u2014 sometimes deservedly so \u2014 for its involvement in unbridled capitalism. Think of the infamous leveraged buy-out, in which investors borrow money to acquire an underperforming company. The buyer inevitably makes drastic changes, often including mass layoffs and selling off subsidiaries. The company may be resuscitated. But if the endeavor fails, it may also go bankrupt (see iHeartMedia) or be sold for parts by the creditors (see EMI Music). \u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tBut blaming private equity for the current state of music \u2014 whatever it might be, but I\u2019ll get to that below \u2014 shows a misunderstanding of institutional investments in music assets. Private equity firms aren\u2019t interested in making their purchases popular \u2014 they invest in catalogs that never stopped<\/em> being popular. The rise of streaming platforms made music an attractive asset class because the royalties became more predictable, and that evergreen nature of desirable catalogs fits into institutional investors\u2019 desire for steady, low-risk returns. \n\tBut, as Billboard<\/em> noted <\/a>in 2022, the rise in catalog\u2019s share of streaming can be attributed to \u201cshallow catalog\u201d rather than legitimate oldies. Shallow catalog is relatively young music that has aged out of the current category but, with the help of streaming platforms\u2019 playlists, remains relevant far longer than radio hits of decades past.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tAccording to Luminate\u2019s 2024 recap, nearly half \u2014 49.6% \u2014 of U.S. on-demand audio streams were songs released in the 2020s, and about 90% of streams came from songs released this century, the same percentage as when Billboard<\/em> ran the numbers <\/a>three years ago. \u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tTo believe that old catalog is crowding out new releases, you\u2019d have to think that the major labels\u2019 partnerships with private equity have infected their desire to develop and break new hits. In 2024, Universal Music Group invested in<\/a> Chord Music Partners, which was co-founded by Dundee Partners and KKR (the latter exited Chord last year). This year, Warner Music Group bought a majority stake<\/a> in Tempo Music, while founder Providence Equity Partners retains a minority stake. \u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tIf these owners of music portfolios are trying to sabotage young artists, they\u2019re doing a lousy job. The old catalogs prized by private equity-backed investors \u2014 music from the \u201860s, \u201870s and \u201880s \u2014 accounted for just 5.7% of streams in 2024. That\u2019s roughly 1 in 19 streams coming from music that originated before the Gulf War. \u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tTo say that old classics crowd out new music assumes the music business is a zero-sum game with an equal number of winners and losers. It\u2019s not. An opportunity won by an old song doesn\u2019t necessarily equate to a loss for a younger song. A Post Malone<\/a> track might work fine for an action scene in a Vietnam War-era film, but the director is going to prefer Creedence Clearwater Revival<\/a>\u2019s \u201cRun Through the Jungle\u201d almost every time. \u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tCatalog valuation expert Citrin Cooperman recently ran across an example that shows music\u2019s value isn\u2019t finite. Between 2022 and 2024, after an older generation started streaming music during the pandemic, catalogs from the \u201880s outperformed music from other decades. But the surge in \u201880s music \u201chas not crowded out newer music,\u201d says Citrin\u2019s Barry Massarsky<\/strong>. \u201cIt\u2019s just added more value to the supply of music on streaming.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tThe touring business offers more proof that young artists aren\u2019t being hamstrung by their predecessors. Billboard Boxscore\u2019s top tours of 2024<\/a> includes numerous newcomers whose careers took off after<\/em> private equity fell in love with music. The No. 3 artist on the list, Zach Bryan<\/a>, released his first major label album in 2022. Bad Bunny<\/a>, who finished at No. 9, released his breakthrough album, YHLQMDLG<\/em>, in 2020. Elsewhere in the Top 40 are several relatively young artists, including Luke Combs<\/a> (No. 11), Karol G<\/a> (No. 12), Travis Scott<\/a> (No. 13) and Olivia Rodrigo<\/a> (No. 14). \u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tThe top tours list does feature legacy acts that have \u2014 or easily could \u2014 sell their catalogs for large sums, such as Coldplay<\/a> (No. 1), Bruce Springsteen<\/a> (No. 5), The Rolling Stones<\/a> (No. 6) and U2<\/a> (No. 7). But there\u2019s also Noah Kahan<\/a> (No. 29), who broke just three years ago, and K-pop group SEVENTEEN<\/a> (No. 31), who didn\u2019t land on a U.S. album chart until 2022.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tBut what about claims that the quality of today\u2019s pop music is lacking? Since I\u2019m not the best person to make qualitative statements about the state of pop music, I talked to some Billboard<\/em> co-workers who follow trends, interview artists, review concerts and generally have their fingers on pop music\u2019s pulse. They gave me sober assessments of current music that contrasts with The Atlantic<\/em>\u2019s naysaying. \u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tOne reason today\u2019s pop music could seem suffocated by the past is because listening has become personalized and fractured. Numerous co-workers point out that radio- and MTV-driven hits have been replaced by countless niches and sub-genres. Dig deep enough and you\u2019ll find innovative and meaningful music that isn\u2019t surfaced by TikTok and Spotify algorithms. \u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tCatalog\u2019s apparent dominance could also be the result of newer ways to measure popularity. \u201cStreaming has made catalog success stories more visible,\u201d says Billboard<\/em>\u2019s Jason Lipshutz. \u201cWe can see how long the classic Christmas singles linger around the top of streaming playlists every holiday season or hear The Neighbourhood<\/a>\u2019s \u2018Sweater Weather\u2019 soundtrack more TikTok clips with every new autumn.\u201d \u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tAnd as Billboard<\/em>\u2019s Andrew Unterberger notes, the revival of old songs didn\u2019t start in either the private equity or TikTok-streaming eras. The Everly Brothers<\/a>\u2019 1965 hit \u201cUnchained Melody\u201d re-entered the Hot 100 chart due to its inclusion in the 1990 motion picture Ghost<\/em>. In 1992, the movie Wayne\u2019s World<\/em> breathed new life into Queen<\/a>\u2019s \u201cBohemian Rhapsody.\u201d The Dirty Dancing<\/em> soundtrack, filled with songs from the early \u201860s, was a huge success in 1987. People have always relived the past \u2014 especially on radio \u2014 but now it\u2019s more obvious.<\/p>\n \n\tMaybe the quality of today\u2019s music isn\u2019t a problem in the first place. \u201cIn the last 18 months or so, I think we\u2019re actually in the healthiest time for pop music of the last decade \u2014 definitely of the 2020s,\u201d says Unterberger. Since the pandemic, which Unterberger believes coincided with a drought in future superstars, artists such as Chappell Roan<\/a>, Sabrina Carpenter<\/a>, Kahan and Bryan became hitmakers and arena-fillers without following traditional industry blueprints. \u201cPeople like that are saying something a little different or saying something a little bit more specific to their times,\u201d he says. \u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tThere\u2019s some evidence that pop music was especially potent in 2024. MIDiA Research noted last week<\/a> that from 2016 to 2023, the top tracks in the U.K. had a decreasing share of total audio streams, with the top 10\u2019s share falling from 2.0% in 2016 to 0.7% in 2023 while the top 100 dropped from 10.3% to 3.7%. But both figures reversed course in 2024: the top 10 inched up to 0.8% and the top 100 rose slightly to 3.8%. What\u2019s behind the increase? MIDiA attributes it to a particularly notable year for superstar releases (Taylor Swift<\/a>, Beyonce<\/a>) but also \u201ca new class of superstars\u201d (Carpenter, Roan, Gracie Abrams<\/a>) and an A&R process that puts developing stars over signing TikTok viral hits. \u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tIt\u2019s not a stretch to say today\u2019s pop music isn\u2019t as deep as, say, Joni Mitchell<\/a>\u2019s \u201cBig Yellow Taxi.\u201d The opening line, \u201cThey paved paradise, put up a parking lot,\u201d provides more social commentary than the average pop song. But maybe critics like Gioia are expecting too much from stars of the current era. Billboard<\/em>\u2019s Lyndsey Havens notes that artists seem unwilling or uninterested in commenting on potentially divisive issues and are instead focusing on relationships rather than cultural or political commentary. \u201cSabrina Carpenter\u2019s \u2018Espresso\u2019 is catchy, and it was obviously a huge hit, but it\u2019s not saying anything,\u201d she says. \u00a0<\/p>\n \n\tThat\u2019s not private equity\u2019s fault, though. That\u2019s the era we live in. People don\u2019t get their politics from musicians the way they did when the U.S. had only three national TV networks and people received their news from one or two local papers. In the internet age, politics and cultural issues permeate everything. Infusing controversial themes into music is like talking politics during Thanksgiving dinner \u2014 somebody is likely to feel alienated. Popular artists don\u2019t want to divide people. At the end of the day, says Havens, pop songs \u201care doing their job.\u201d \u00a0
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It\u2019s true that new releases account for a minority of on-demand music streams. In 2024, the share of catalog \u2014 releases more than 18 months old \u2014 stood at 73.3% of on-demand audio streams, according to Luminate. That was up from 66.4% in 2020.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
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Maybe the best lesson here is not to over-romanticize the past. The classic catalog sales that grab headlines don\u2019t necessarily represent the most popular music of their day. \u201cBig Yellow Taxi\u201d \u2014 which Mitchell has not sold, by the way \u2014 has become a timeless classic, but was less popular than dozens of other tracks while reaching No. 67 on the Hot 100 in 1970 and No. 24 in 1975<\/a>. \u201cEven at the most innovative moments in pop music history,\u201d says Unterberger, \u201cthere was still dreck on the charts.\u201d\u00a0
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Additional reporting by Liz Dilts Marshall<\/em>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n